They reap as they have sown

The return of foot and mouth disease to Surrey has “baffled” ministers and provoked the usual reaction from the so-called National Farmers Union. (It’s not a union – but a producer cartel.) The new prime minister is clueless. The title of this blog announces why I must return to this subject.

Witless ministers today profess themselves incapable of understanding why the disease has come back just one day after they officially announced it was beaten!

“Baffled” says tonight’s Evening Standard. “Puzzled” admits the Environment Secretary responsible for animal health Hilary Benn, who graduated from Sussex in Russian and East European Studies and has the massive experience of having been in his job since June. The NFU’s president Peter Kendall sounds just like all previous NFU presidents and has demanded once again that the disease be “stamped out” (this being NFU/Defra code for slaughtering healthy animals, with full compensation paid by everyone else).*

Predictably, sticking to the script, slaughter “on suspicion” has already resumed. Why not slaughter pensioners with influenza? Oddly, this is the same government that offers flu vaccine, on the NHS. Like a broken record, our beloved Prime Minister Brown is promising to eliminate the disease. Just as he promised last time! The V word does not pass his lips.

Once again, those of us who have since the 2001 débâcle been demanding vaccination have been ignored. Once again, we have been proved right. Had Defra ring vaccinated immediately following the original outbreak this summer, the cows now infected in the shadow of Windsor Castle would not be infected. I told you so. By not vaccinating now they are making themselves look like idiots.

Nothing is very complicated here. The disease is back because ministers are scientifically illiterate and because Defra and the NFU, led by the glamorous film star turned hapless chief vet Debbie Reynolds, despite their proven track record of failure, remain firmly in control.

One needs hardly to be reminded that the latest outbreak like the one that proceeded it originated with the escape of the virus from a government laboratory with collapsing toxic drains that nobody could organise themselves to repair and lorry loads of contaminated spoil being trucked off the site in all directions.

God forbid this is the standard of biosecurity prevailing elsewhere on the government’s biochemical estate.

For anyone who still fails to understand the absurdity of this, I recommend Abigail Wood’s book, A Manufactured Plague.

Abigail’s book questions how foot and mouth came to be seen as one of the world’s worst animal plagues, although it poses little threat to human health (although in the UK without much doubt it seriously affects human mental health and has a negative human impact in many other ways). She asks why, in the epidemic of 2001, the government’s control strategy still relied on Victorian trade restrictions and mass slaughter. Her book is brilliant.

Abigail shows that for more than a century foot and mouth has brought fear, tragedy and sorrow – damaging businesses and affecting international relations. Yet these effects were neither inevitable nor caused by foot and mouth itself but were, rather, the product of the legislation used to control it, and so in this sense foot and mouth is a ‘manufactured’ plague rather than a natural one.

Abigail, like the rest of us, has been ignored. The NFU, which defends the exports of its members no matter how many billions it costs the rest of us, meanwhile retains statutory rights of consultation (in effect, so far, a veto) over government policy. Foot and Mouth has cost the country between £10 billion and £20 billion since 2001 in order to protect a trade worth a tiny fraction of this sum. Has our government, has the prime minister, the intelligence to do a simple cost-benefit calculation? This is madness.

The only good news is that the Queen’s pad at Windsor is in the middle of the control zone. She’s a countrywoman at heart. Maybe she could have a word with Mr Brown and tell him to stop his ministers and their officials acting like such stupid cows. Go for it ma’am – we peasants are depending on you.

Warmwell remains the indispensible source for hour-to-hour developments.

The estimable Matthew Weaver’s FMD blog is back in The Guardian.

Sheepdrove’s blog is also indispensible.

* This looks encouragingly like a potentially serious crisis for the NFU (known in my manor as “no fucking use”) whose traditional “line to take” is now out of step even amongst the growing disgruntled “members” of the NFU. There are numerous successful and humane British farmers (such as Sheepdrove) who are loudly pointing out that they also have rights, including the right to compete in the market if necessary with vaccinated meat. It must be asked – if we have to have a row with the EU, so what? In the meantime the NFU is dangerously exposed and revealed as the emperor with no clothes. Farmers are now really stuck and it is largely because the NFU has colluded in an antediluvian policy. Even the farmers who once towed the NFU line on vaccination have grown curiously silent.

Stop press: Friday morning, 14 September: It would be odd if we were about to win but the odds just increased a little bit, although they are still very long against us, Mary and I feel. We also think we are being read in Whitehall and the news offices and are starting to make a difference. I get the same feeling. I am still worried Defra might try to sabotage a vaccine trial.

Remind me again: why are we not vaccinating?

I do not go to Defra press conferences and they probably would not let me in the building. Besides, the sun is shining and we are behind on the haymaking. But perhaps one of the zombie hacks in attendance at La Reynold’s next performance could briefly bother to ask the chief vet why animal owners are not allowed to vaccinate against FMD at their own expense? They could ask her if it is true or false that vaccinated animals can be differentiated from infected animals. And after she has explained why owners like Sheepdrove should not be allowed to vaccinate, even at their own expense, they should ask her to disclose Defra’s own vaccination protocol. If Defra is finally forced to vaccinate will they then insist on slaughtering vaccinated animals? If so, why? They should ask her to release the minutes of the stakeholder group meetings and to disclose who the members are. I ask because I really, really would like to know.

The news from Dorking is not great as I have a pig over there… and a lot of people coming to lunch. Can anyone tell me where I can source a giant marrow, to feed 100?

The Guardian’s estimable Matthew Taylor is back for more live news blogging here.

It is on Matthew’s blog that I see the chief vet has disclosed that we are now within a 7-day period when it is possible to vaccinate, although no decision has been taken to do so:

12.00pm: Debby Reynolds says that Defra believes the foot and mouth outbreak may now be contained and that the risk that infection will spread outside the affected area is “very low”.

She told a press conference that day seven of the outbreak was a critical day, as it was the first time a decision could be made to vacinate, but – for now – there will be no vacination of animals.

Still no news on the third suspected outbreak in Dorking – outside the protection zone – though the farmer is confident that his calves are suffering from a pneumonia infection and not foot and mouth.

Can someone help me understand the significance of seven days?

The NFU is insisting today that they are “not against” vaccination. This is in a letter attacking “smart Alec” journalists (I presume I am among their number) and includes the curious claim that “we are not against vaccination.” This really won’t do. The NFU have been hysterically against it for years. When have they ever been for it? Under what circumstances would they urge vaccination? Have they advised Defra or shared with Defra any opinions on the use of vaccination at present? This denial of the NFU that they are against vaccination is slippery and disingenuous as well as brazen and arrogant.

Compassion in World Farming who are my near neighbours in Godalming have proposed a very sensible “vaccinate to live” policy which I am waiting to hear the NFU endorse.

10 top things about foot and mouth

Happier days at Pirbright: The Surrey County Vaccine Farms

The 10 top things about FMD 2007.

10. Never mind the disinfectant, send the whitewash. A dramatic improvement in government media/presentational skill, mirrored by no raising of the game by editors, compared to 2001. See 8, 7 below.

9. Scientists are often psychotic, in the clinical sense meaning they have lost touch with reality. Any reality. Ground reality. System reality. Media reality. The award goes to Sir Brian Follett for his sagacity in the Sunday Times: “The reason we slaughter animals is because, in island countries, it works. We can keep the virus out.” A healthy debate in the bioscience community about vaccination would be welcome but it is so odd that those who obstruct vaccinations use arguments that are simply ludicrous and false.

8. Journalism in Britain is quite dramatically terrible as anyone can tell you when they observe the coverage of something they know plenty about. The absence of scientifically trained journalists is very apparent as it was in 2001. Rolling news channels by far the worst – torrents of drivel, 24 by 7. This is the syndrome that we saw with the media in the run-up to the war in Iraq. A dependence on authority to timetable events and establish the agenda, ignoring all contrary evidence or burying it on page 94. The BBC is consistently mediocre.

7. The media tropes are identical. Terrible disease. Tragedy for farmers. A threatened cow named Mabel in a petting zoo. The editors cover every big story by habit. This is why they prefer stories that “come back” so they can order the clips and cover them like last time. A dirty media secret is that editors do not like anything too new – they don’t understand it and have no precedent to inform their decisions.

6. Mediocrity of civil service. By which I mean the the glamorous chief vet who frankly wasn’t that hot, though she will now get a K. Not as sinister as Scudamore but she did everything she could to keep the approach NFU friendly, and I predict the vaccination kits will not be used. She pretended vaccination is an option while never intending to use it unless someone put a bullet to her head. So far, she’s got away with it. I think it’s a cynical tactic. I exempt the local field Defra office in Surrey who have distiguished themselves by being actually human. It has been my own experience as the owner of a registered farm (currently on the very edge of the surveillance zone) that the worker bees at the local Defra office do try to be helpful, despite the insane orders they receive from headquarters.

5. NFU more digusting than ever and why they are taken seriously is a disease of public policy. Literally. The government is required to consult them under a 1947 Act passed by a Labour government that idiotically thought they were empowering a union. What we have, despite recent reforms, is a monster in which not all members even get to vote, and the last five bosses have been knighted. This is a corrupt relationship in the sense of mordant decay. It produces terrible public policy. They are so unbelievably slippery and unconvincing. They are probably reading this wondering whether to sue me but some one is reminding them of MacDonalds.

4. Internet has dramatically improved networking and communications for us “troublemakers” who object that government policy is unscientific, brutal and disgusting. But while the networks are activating quickly, frankly we lack real political clout. We do not have a clunking great fist. The challenge is to convert our command of the facts and superb intelligence into meaningful pressure. I admit this is a tough problem when our democracy is so intangible, and note that it is a problem not unique to this issue.

3. This time around there is some interesting potential for lawyers. I imagine there are going to be some rewarding issues of liability and indemnity to fight about. This will pay for some very beautiful houses in France and a lot of very good claret.

2. Pirbright should be closed and the entire operation moved to a rocky island off Scotland, preferably.

1. Gordon Brown has been bloody lucky. So far.

This is my best guess at the moment. If the outbreak gets much worse then this list becomes inoperative, of course, and I will have to do it over.

Matthew Weaver is back today in The Guardian. Not to be missed. Ditto Warmwell. Rapidly improving Sheepdrove blog has good piece on “vaccinate to live.”

Dial 999

Call the cops! There’s been dirty work at the crossroads. Something nasty has been spotted in the woodshed.

In its Initial report on potential breaches to biosecurity at the Pirbright site, 2007 the Health and Safety Executive “confirms” Pirbright as the source of the FMD virus. As reported here on Saturday. You would have to be very dense not to have figured this out already.

Wind and water are unlikely vectors, says HSE. The great flood theory advanced by the glamorous chief vet is a problem because, er, the water flows away from the farms and towards Pirbright. And the air filters seemed to be working. Not that everything looked honky-dory, if you read between the lines. It seems Defra is responsible for regulating the FMD virus whereas the HSE is responsible for other oversight, so here are two new questions: (1) how are/were these responsibilities co-ordinated, or were they, and (2) how and who at Defra was discharging this responsibility? If this person exists, their reports must be disclosed. I suspect the buck here actually stops at the desk of the glamorous chief vet. Here is another lovely picture of her:

So, the suspect vector is human. Acting either negligently or criminally. A specific human, as I proposed two days ago? There is “chatter” that laboratory people may have had a number of improper contacts and have violated employment contracts prohibiting these. But that there is one Prime Suspect. “Presentational” management of the HSE ensures we have a document to deconstruct that has been deliberately designed by the government’s finest spin doctors to be as opaque and non-committal as possible.

There are various potential routes for accidental or deliberate transfer of material from the site, says HSE. As a statement of the blindingly obvious, this is a classic. And then this fascinating couplet:

We have investigated site management systems and records and spoken to a number of employees. As a result we are pursuing lines of inquiry. Amazing. Incredible.

Release by human movement must also be considered a real possibility. Further investigation of the above issues is required and is being urgently pursued.

The polished blandness of this, redacted by Sir Humphrey in person, tells me this is Whitehall Speak for: “Oh, shit!” There is obviously a lot going on that we are not being told, although I promise we shall find out. Just some initial thoughts. “Various potential routes” means more than one. “We are pursuing lines of inquiry” confirms they have one or more suspects.

So much for the vaunted biosecurity, then. And so much for the government’s hope that this could all be quickly blamed on Merial labs. That HSE have not immediately done so is suggestive, if not conclusive.

So, Pirbright is a potential crime scene. A couple of lard-arsed coppers lounging around the front gate (as seen on all TV channels) seems an inadequate response by the Surrey constabulary.

Round up the usual suspects!

Another crime scene is the newsrooms of the national media who are blundering about oaf-like on this story. The word “vaccination” was banned from the BBC 6 o’clock national news program yesterday. Sky has a very pretty girl outside Pirbright who knows the square root of fuck all about FMD and would struggle to define or even spell epizootic. Sky has a medical correspondent who seems to be getting around this, but their continued reliance on the NFU as an authority is perverting their coverage and making them look ever more naive and stupid. The BBC as one might expect is slavish to official sources.

The newspapers meanwhile print tosh as today’s unsigned Guardian panel on vaccination shamefully demonstrates. The Guardian has had a good blog on this for a couple of days but the Whitehall staff are conduits and the paper has not yet really hit its stride. The Telegraph is keen. The Times is wildly unreliable; their reliance on official sources and leaks too obvious, the suspicion of spin always too close.

I am working on a list of the 10 top things about FMD as I am told lists generate enormous numbers of clicks (and like all bloggers this is the subject that obsesses me most, as well as knowing how many readers I have in Albania). Please send me your nominations. An early candidate for the top most stupid thing is from Sir Brian Follett in The Sunday Times who sagely declares: “the reason we slaughter animals is because, in island countries, it works. We can keep the virus out.” This is pretty delusional, isn’t it Sir Brian?

Updating at 10.03 a.m.: Le Monde has just arrived with a brilliant Plantu cartoon illustrating a story that declares there to be a “Pénurie mondiale de lait: les prix vont monter.” The French government, says the paper, is going to seek an adjustment of milk quota to meet demand for milk and milk products which is now outstripping supply in Europe.

Updating at 12.05: Hooray! Matthew Weaver’s blog is back in the Guardian.

Hooray again!!! Sheepdrove is back.

15.00: Sky continues to produce the worst sort of commodity journalism with painful absence of producers who understand the science or the ground reality. To the dichotomy of ground reality versus system reality there is the third dimension of media reality which is completely detached from either! The imperative of 24 hour TV is that powerful authorities are capable of manipulating it almost all the time. Sometimes, an “event” can disrupt this control but usually the authorities will maintain their overwhelming influence on the definition of the narrative. Only independent and authoritative journalists can challenge this and even so they are limited in what they can do. This is why I read the media to know what’s in the media, but not to discover what is actually happening.